So you actually addressed the question of AMD’s superior products, only to gaslight everyone with a non-sequitur and speculating about Intel powerpoint roadmaps and TSMC allocation rumors.

Standard JayN nonsense.

“It won’t, and that same level of profitability can never return. ”

Intel has spent over $15B in R&D over the last 12 months, and over $12B/yr for the last 6 yrs. It isn’t hard to imagine some of that research having large returns. Their FPGAs are now on Intel-7 process. Their Mobileye business is testing robotaxis. Their silicon photonics business is selling 800Gb pluggable optics. Their Optane PMEM products are creating a buzz in HPC and cloud storage. Their NFV products are taking off.

“They are also already in a position of price domination due to superior products…”

The Mercury research numbers still show Intel with about 90% of server market share for 2021. AMD excels in a confined segment of the market, and will expand that with the zen4 chips, but Intel’s SPR-HBM also appears to be raising the bar.

Intel is apparently bidding vs AMD for the limited N5 and N3 capacity at TSM, unlike in years past, and AMD now is reportedly in line there behind both Intel and Apple.

Intel just opened the new D1X fab expansion in Oregon. They have expansions scheduled to open in Ireland next year and in Israel in the following year.

The new projects in AZ, NM and Ohio are just beginning, but the other expansions will contribute to Intel’s earnings in the near term, as will the increased use of TSM for the new discrete GPU program.

It will be difficult for them not to increase revenues, with all that capacity expansion.

Absolutely. And I would say AMD sized an oven with TSMC when it should have had one maybe 2X to 3X as big, but it could not have known how badly Intel would trip with both 10 nanometer and 7 nanometer processes.

AMD itself is also suffering from shortages due to limited capacities. In the end lead times are up to 40 weeks and more for most top server products. AMD is at a point where they simply cant bake more cakes than they have room in the oven. They are also already in a position of price domination due to superior products, so the benefits of intels particular shortages are rather thin. Only more capacitiy would matter to AMD.

That is the point, Intel was used to have basically zero or close to zero competition. Market fragmentation and a high level of competition in addition to much more general options on the market for customers, adds price pressure for everyone. Just look at the memory foundry business, where it was once and where its these days. The bigger the competition the smaller your piece of the cake with following lower the margins. People should lower their expectations on Intel, and seperate “turn around” from “old” margins. A turn-around is in general possible as in getting back to the market, but not to a state which most people were used to. And I believe the disappointment will be big. Not to mention that everyone in the foundry business is currently building up potential overcapacities (in 1-2years to come up), which might slowly end up in a boom bust cycle some day, not as dramatic as the last one, but this will cause a margin bleed. The logic foundry business will end up in the same spot where the memory business was and is(with exceptions for top notch nodes).

No, I am not criticizing it. Intel is doing what it has to do, and the best it can under the circumstances, and I think it will get better at process and processors. But that it not the same thing as believing that it will be able to get back to a place where there was no competition. It won’t, and that same level of profitability can never return. Any more than the profits of the Unix market were retained when the world shifted to Linux-X86, just to give an example. That easy game is over, and now it is the hard game for everyone because there is competition.